CONFESSION ABOUT LEAP

I noticed a worrisome and clearly morbid (but easily explainable and understandable) pattern in my head - after big gains and significant victories I tend to check account more often and I want to brag. This time there is no exception. I would like to believe and promise that once I will confess a big loss, in detail.

2013 just clocked the first half and 4 of my ~10 long holdings have been taken out. In a similar settings, 2010 brought me also 4 take-outs but this year has 6 months to go.

The last one came in a spectacular fashion. +100% on the takeout day and +150% in the last month. It was not an easy one because I almost sold it 2 month ago but decided to wait for long-term gain and while waiting it dropped 15%. In the time of waiting, another holding was taken out, price was low and urgency subsided. It is enigma, why I did not add :)

It was a difficult one because the multiple was high and because the leverage was high, too. Because what a guy in the other side of the world may know about intricacies of the US wireless telcos and smart people were thinking that prepaid niche is a poor business without competitive advantages. It turned out that prepaid were and are good quality assets comprising not only of multiples but also of spectrum, subscriber base (market share), and attractive cost structures. I am speaking about LEAP (and PCS).

To summarize the 2013 take-outs:

PCS – 425 days | 140% IRR

DELL – 270 days | 21% IRR (went down 25% before that)

MBND 430 days | 34% IRR (went down 30% before that)

LEAP 440 days | 155%

Interestingly, I stepped twice into the PCS river – in 2010/11, 425 days brought me 150% IRR.

Finally, last 12 month I spent only 1-2 hours per week working on my investing account. What could I do if it were a full time job? I am afraid, it could also be the opposite... Happy hunting.