Sunday, February 10, 2013

DELTA UPSET PINNACLE AIRLINES SHAREHOLDERS

It is about the right time to call the finale of the Pinnacle Airlines bankruptcy.

Delta Airlines, an iconic American brand, did not bother with shareholders of its subcontractor and took over a profitable and solvent company. What is interesting it took it over FREE OF CHARGE (yes, it provided financing, blah blah blah, and got hundreds for a few tens of millions).


Evidently, Delta follows a very strong set of guidelines as summarized in the Code of Ethics and Business Conduct:
Fair Dealing. Directors shall oversee fair dealing by employees, officers and directors with the Company's customers, suppliers, competitors and employees. "Fair dealing" means the avoidance of unfair advantage through manipulation, concealment, abuse of privileged information, misrepresentation of material facts, or any other unfair dealing practice. This Code provision will have no effect on existing legal rights and obligations of the Company and its employees, including "at will" employment arrangements.
As a shareholder, I would prefer a liquidation (without a credible attempt it was impossible to extract any shareholder value) and potentially a meaningful recovery of some shareholder money but a "greater good for society" argument in combination with questionable action of a judge (can he read the balance sheet?) and lack of shareholder coordination and financial resources to take the litigation risk negated this opportunity. What is greater good for society, though, a properly functioning and just civilization or preserved jobs in the hands of vulture iconic brands?

As written here
If Pinnacle were to liquidate, Delta wouldn’t have many options for regional jet service, putting the bargaining power in the regional airlines’ corner. Without Pinnacle, Delta’s options would be limited to Skywest Inc. and other smaller regional providers.
I forgot to mention the leading role of management, unwilling and incompetent to extract any value in such a strong bargaining situation for those who created them jobs. But they did really well for their new employer.

Here are the heroes: Board of Directors
Donald J. Breeding
Chairman
Susan MacGregor Coughlin
Director
Ian Massey
Director
James E. McGehee Jr.
Director
Thomas S. Schreier
Director
R. Philip Shannon
Director
Alfred T. Spain
Director
Nicholas R. Tomassetti
Director
John Spanjers
Director

What are the lesson here? Anything is possible, anywhere. Even in Russia.

Debt layer of financial structure is much safer and considerably less prone for a binary outcome in similar situations.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

INTERESTING FEELINGS


I have been silent for quite a long time. Do not have much to say, just to note that I remain bearish for no particular reason. It is probably nature of contrarian pretenders to think in the opposite direction than the majority.

Downtown Josh (I like his writings a lot) is pounding weekly how the tide is turning and the snowball starts rolling like a train. Even EU ongoing disaster and Chinese real estate bubble correction cannot even bump it. And nothing (known) in sight can change the situation. Josh probably wants to sound balanced and neutral but this how I feel after reading him.

I try to check my temper with John Hussman’s weekly musings. Last Monday, he once again produced the calm for me. Human beings really need to belong somewhere and to rationalize everything. In business cycles though it is crucial to synchronize ones expectations with the real pace of life.

All is not well but it is really painful to remain hedged. This pain gives me the feeling of rightness (check – do I have masochistic inclinations?). It is much much easier to go with the stream, like in March 2009 (meaning not to buy stocks at that time). There is huge assumption in the sky that economy is sustainable, the Fed will be able to stop printing and deficit will shrink; and who cares if this is not true…

Stocks are high and bonds are high. Are people taking profits? Is it smart to do that now? Most think that we will ride further up. Those who are afraid of bonds sell them and buy stocks but somebody is always on the other side of the trade. For some reason, somebody is doing the opposite: buying bond and selling stock. Or people earn money and send them to former owners of bonds and stocks, who hell knows what do with this cash. Really what matters is demand and supply – on both, general market and on the micro individual security level.

I am on the edge of initiating a significant position, 3x my normal position size, approaching 10% of net worth. It is a cable company which probably will enter reorganization and it’s debt now trades at ~2.5x EBITDA. I thought that writing about this will give me some courage, for it may be a long ride without daily quotes. In December, I almost bought it at 45, in two weeks it went up to 65 and now back to 50. YTM is >30% for the next 3 years (10% would be enough for me). What is not to like? Cable is an asset in bear or bull.

It is great to have a blog and confess to ones consciousness and others. Whoever that is.