OTE AND GREXIT

I do not know much about how devaluations work exactly but recent beating of Portugal Telecom and Hellenic Telecommunications made me curious. 

I simply took a napkin and this is what I got. All numbers are in EUR billions.

	Pre exit EUR	Exit impact	Post exit EUR
Net debt	3.35	100%	3.35
Market cap	0.71	50%	0.36
EV	4.06		3.71
Ebitda exGreece	0.40	75%	0.30
Ebitda Greece	1.20	50%	0.60
EBITDA	1.60		0.90
EV/EBITDA	2.54		4.12
Capex	0.6	75%	0.45
EV/(EBITDA - Capex)	4.06		8.23

Even at 4x EBITDA it does not look like the end of the world. 50% devaluation may sound too much because you can hear people speaking about 30% difference of labor competitiveness between south and north. It is true that significant part of OTE (this was the former ticker of Hellenic Telecommunications while it was listed on NYSE) is fixed telco and outside of Greece it is present in countries like Romania, Albania, Bulgaria (at least they must be more competitive than Greece itself), which may justify lower multiple but as I started, it does not smell anything terminal. Additionally, DTEGY.PK (Yahoo shows that it now trades at 4.7x EBITDA) has 40% of it and the state owns 10% and has 5% put at some insane price (20 EUR) (correct me if I am wrong). Communications are like food these days, so cash flows should not go away. 

Question comes to mind if you can get it cheaper - try to imagine if you would dare buying it on the day of devaluation.