I have been quiet for a while and traffic to the
blog is just from search bots. As a coincidence, we are investing into a
startup producing web robots. I (kind of) just want to write to myself that I
have no intention to close this blog.
The first half of 2014 was not kind to portfolio
and it is mainly my mistake in position concentration of option-like trades
(they were not investments), which should be a fraction of portfolio and I
confused feeling and past luck in similar situations to skill and knowledge. I let
positions rise and did not liquidate in time, so since options expired
worthless, portfolio is down double digits. Think of RSH, UNTK…
All these portfolio hits and my general busyness
and lack of time made me rethink my current investments tactics. I have to
admit that head is quite messy. Market is high and tempting to remove hedges. At
least shorting small caps was a somewhat right insight. Well, I keep reminding
myself that there is a price for cherry consensus and if everything would look
right, there would be no upside left.
Thinking about general market perceptions is a
fruitless thing, too. Who in his right mind can measure it? Do people are bearish
too much or enough or not enough for the market to keep on climbing the wall of
worry? Low interest rates just do not look right to me. Muddle through and new
normal were very precise descriptions and predictions at their origination. At
least, about the general background (I do not need even to search for evidence,
it keeps coming like on a live news feed: Link).
So, who is this insider?
I am getting
Daily Reckoning updates daily and sometimes read them, especially Chris Mayer
and Bill Bonner. Chris is really good in giving tips to new interesting
companies (whom we all tend to collect) and books, while Bill is a master of
word and common sense. However, this time I read about insiders from a
different author (Link).
I carry this insider
idea in my head from early spring when Ukrainian situation was in its emotional
Maidan stage. Such events cause stock fluctuations and Russian political decision
makers do not have to report to SEC. It is trivial to make a billion dollars
with a simple press release. It is redistribution of wealth in Russia when rich
will get richer. But only for those who are close to the man.
It is September
now and the idea does not seam so convincing anymore. The man has proven to be
unpredictable and it is unclear what are his real motives, if any. Gazprom is a
huge arbitrage story where a company with such proven reserves would cost
probably 100x more if situated in a stable democratic country. Everything has a
price. You can see my thought flow and here is the chart. The thing has started
to brew between January and March.
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